China’s GDP – 2015 Target and Outlook

China just released preliminary 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) results. At 7.4% they missed their annual target (7.5%) by a mere breath – not a huge deal practically, but significant symbolically. More important is the composition of this growth. Consumption is playing a bigger role, as investment falls from former growth rates. Services activity continues to rise relative to heavy industry. These are positive signs. Beijing is whispering a 2015 GDP target to friends and thought leaders: the number we are hearing – 7% “or thereabout” – would reflect doubling-down on nascent reforms. We extrapolate the most likely pattern of 2015 expenditure growth to see what 7% growth on top of the 2014 base would look like. This target portends one trillion dollars in new Chinese activity at the margin on top of 2014 output. Ask yourself: where will that come from?

http://rhg.com/notes/chinas-gdp-2015-target-and-outlook